The 2020s could be Greece's decade--China Economic Net

By Natasa Stasinou

The image of the Greek economy is improving noticeably in terms of fiscal figures, but its long-term dynamics remain inextricably linked to the demographic problem. This was one of the key points highlighted in an Oxford Economics webinar, which Naftemporiki.gr attended.

According to the webinar, which was titled “Could the 2020s be Greece’s decade?”, the public debt-to-GDP ratio continues to follow a downward trajectory over the decade, with the country gradually moving away from its position as the most heavily indebted in the eurozone.

The combined effect of nominal growth, inflation in previous years and fiscal discipline works favorably for debt sustainability.

However, estimates for the long-term growth prospects appear more moderate. Oxford Economics pointed out that after the negative contribution of labor supply in the 2010s, demographic aging continues to constrain growth prospects. The decline in the working-age population means that future growth will have to rely more on productivity and investment. Already from 2027, it lowers the expectations compared to the official estimates of the Greek government.

The message is clear: debt deleveraging creates a fiscal cushion, but the real challenge for Greece remains structural. The balance between fiscal sustainability and human capital enhancement will determine whether the current improvement translates into sustainable convergence with the rest of Europe.