Can Iran 'control' the Strait of Hormuz as the plan takes sh

Xinhua News Agency reporter

 

According to a report by Iran's Maiher News Agency on the 25th, citing an Iranian parliamentarian, Iran has developed a comprehensive plan for managing the Strait of Hormuz. Analysts point out that Iran's move has multiple purposes, including increasing pressure on the United States and Israel, and obtaining new stable sources of income. However, the charging of fees for passing ships has sparked opposition internationally, and the United States is putting pressure on Iran by blocking its ports and ships. There is still uncertainty about whether Iran's strait control plan can be truly implemented.

 

What is the purpose

 

According to the Maher News Agency, the above news was revealed by Iranian Islamic Parliament member Behnam Saidi.

 

According to Saidi, the content of the comprehensive plan includes that the sovereignty of the Strait of Hormuz will be fully in Iran's hands; Ships and vessels navigating within the region must obtain permission from Iran; Ships passing through this area are required to pay relevant fees for safety, environmental protection, shipping management, permit issuance, and other matters, with priority given to payment in Riyals; Ships recognized as hostile by the Supreme National Security Council or the General Staff of the Armed Forces are not allowed to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, and Israeli ships are absolutely prohibited from passing through the area; For countries that have caused losses to Iran, relevant countries must first reach an agreement with Iran on compensation methods before Iran can issue passage permits to their ships.

 

Analysts believe that the plan reveals multiple purposes for Iran.

 

Firstly, continue to exert pressure on the United States and Israel. Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz, a global shipping hub, affects international oil prices, exacerbating inflationary pressures and economic burdens between the US and Israel, while also prompting international calls for a cooling of the situation and the opening of waterways, putting dual pressure on the US and Israel in terms of economy and diplomacy. Prohibiting the passage of ships from 'hostile countries' is even more aimed at the United States and Israel. At the same time, linking the issue of cross-strait passage with the demand for war reparations aims to force the US to make concessions on the issue of compensation.

 

Secondly, leave room for negotiation between the United States and Iran. Despite Iran's tough stance towards the United States, it has not completely closed the negotiation channels. Iran recently dispatched Foreign Minister Alaghi to visit Pakistan, but claimed not to negotiate with the US, but also conveyed a message to the US through Pakistan, revealing that Alaghi may return to Islamabad soon. When introducing the comprehensive plan, Saidi listed Israel as an "absolute prohibited" object, but did not name the United States, which may imply that the navigation of American ships can be used as a bargaining chip.

 

Once again, provide Iran with new sources of income. According to statistics, if Iran charges $1 per barrel of oil passing through the Strait of Hormuz, based on the pre war navigation volume of the strait, Iran will earn over $7.7 billion in revenue annually. International public opinion believes that this will become an important source of funding for Iran to resist the US Western blockade and carry out post-war reconstruction.

 

Can it be implemented

 

Regarding the follow-up procedures, Saidi said that the plan has been submitted to the National Security Committee of the Islamic Parliament of Iran. Once the plenary session of the parliament resumes, it will be submitted to the Speaker's College and reviewed at the plenary session. The plan may also be approved and released by the Supreme National Security Council.

 

Regarding this, Abdul Aziz Shabani, a researcher at the Riyadh Center for Political and Strategic Studies in Saudi Arabia, analyzed that the approval of the proposal by the plenary session of the parliament would give it formal legal status, but the process would be complex and more likely to provoke international opposition. And obtaining approval from the Supreme National Security Council for release is a more flexible and rapid path, which also facilitates adjustments according to the development of the situation.

 

However, Shabani believes that from a practical perspective, it will be very difficult to implement comprehensive interception and charging of all ships passing through the strait in the presence of a huge navigation volume and military forces of other countries. The implementation of future plans is more likely to be limited and selective.

 

At the same time, Iran's move is controversial in international law and has also sparked many voices of opposition. Iran's imposition of tolls on this sea route will inevitably increase the transportation time and cost of passing ships, and have a wide-ranging impact on the economies of many countries. If Iran forcibly charges fees, it may face international pressure and diplomatic passivity.

 

In addition, the United States is implementing countermeasures by blockading Iranian ports and ships. The US has made it clear that it will never allow Iran to permanently control the strait or establish a toll system. If the blockade continues and Iran's oil storage facilities reach their peak, Iran may be forced to shut down production, which could cause significant damage to its oil extraction facilities. The United States also threatened to intercept and inspect all ships paying tolls to Iran in international waters. This may result in no ships passing through the strait and Iran not receiving tolls.

 

Of course, the US blockade of Iran will come at a huge cost, and Iran may only use the fees as a bargaining chip to exchange benefits with the US. Therefore, there is still uncertainty about whether the above plan will be implemented and to what extent it will be implemented. According to Xinhua News Agency, Beijing/Tehran, April 26th

 

 

 

(Editor in charge: Ma Changyan)